Market Musings 8/4/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Stocks hit new all-time highs in July… but is the rally finally running out of gas?
The S&P 500 climbed another 2.2% in July. Not bad, considering #RateCuts hopes got dashed and #Tariffs are still looming in the background.
July kicked off strong: June’s #LaborMarkets data looked solid, #Tariffs hikes were delayed again, #Inflation remained muted and #ConsumerConfidence continued to bounce back. Add in a better-than-feared earnings season with companies mostly beating low bars and sounding more upbeat going forward.
Investors took the win and kept pushing markets higher, but the optimism didn’t last forever. In the last week, the Fed threw cold water on the party. They held rates steady again and signaled no rush for #RateCuts in September.
Then, came a splash of reality in August…
August started with a #LaborMarkets jobs report flop. July hiring slowed and over 250K jobs from May and June vanished after revisions.
Meanwhile, new #Tariffs officially kicked in with no sign of a “taco” reversal yet.
Markets opened the month in a freefall, but already mostly bounced back.
So, what’s going on?
We don’t think the market rally is dead, but investors are getting more cautious. There’s still hope for #Tariffs relief and muted economic impact, but it feels like markets are bracing for bumps, not just blasting higher. We may still see new highs in the near term, but expect more choppy days when data misses or the Fed stays hawkish.
We still think a pullback is coming eventually, but it’ll take a string of bad news to break this “glass half full” market.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by fauxels.