Market Musings 7/16/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
#Tariffs sneaking into #Inflation… 👀
#Inflation came-in soft again, but #Tariffs might already be creeping in…
June’s CPI was better than expected. Core #Inflation ticked up to 0.2%－but still below expectations.
Meanwhile, June’s PPI was flat for the month. However, the May data was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.1%－a net gain was of 0.3%.
Markets dipped Tuesday on the CPI, but then bounced a bit Wednesday after the PPI. Overall, markets are slightly lower since the #Inflation data dropped.
Why didn’t markets rally more? Well, #Tariffs impact might be starting to show…
Household like furniture and appliances were up 1% M/M while Recreation like electronics and toys were also higher. These are goods more exposed to #Tariffs. However, new and used cars offset the growth likely due to demand falling off after consumers rushed to buy earlier in the year ahead of the #Tariffs.
Meanwhile, on the PPI side, producer goods actually rose +0.3%, but services fell -0.1% to offset it.
It’s still early as bigger #Tariffs haven’t hit yet, but this could be the first ripple.
PCE, the Fed’s preferred #Inflation gauge, is coming at the end of the month, but we don’t expect that to be much different from the CPI/PPI.
More importantly, Q2 earnings are underway. That’s where we hope to learn how businesses are managing through the #Tariffs uncertainty.
We’ll follow up with more as companies report.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.