Market Musings 7/14/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
Will the #Tariffs deadline keep getting extended?
Markets keep betting on #Tariffs getting delayed, but what if at some point they don’t?
Over the weekend, the White House announced 30% #Tariffs on the EU and boosted Mexico to 30% as well. Both will start August 1st along with all the other #Tariffs announcements.
Markets rallied Monday from earlier morning losses. Investors are still abroad the taco train likely expecting another extension come August.
We, too, wouldn’t rule out another delay either, but we’re getting more cautious.
The market and economic situation is vastly different than when the White House first pivoted away from the harsh #Tariffs in April. Markets had crashed and #ConsumerConfidence had plummeted.
However, markets are now back to all-times highs and the economy has largely weathered the instability so far. This could give the White House some cushion to push forward with #Tariffs on August 1st or at a later deadline extension.
#Tariffs fears are essentially already non-existent in the markets and recent #ConsumerConfidence has rebounded as well. We could easily see the other countries currently in-negotiations feeling similar (at least in private).
To regain the fear of the threats, the White House may decide to go ahead and impose them. This could topple the market’s optimism. It’s not to say it wouldn’t be walked back quickly, but the empty threats are starting to hold no meaning.
In the meantime, Q2 earnings are kicking off. Company outlooks were fairly muted last quarter. It’ll be interesting to see if companies just took advantage of the poor #Tariffs sentiment in April to lower the bar or did they actually see #ConsumerConfidence demand pullback.
We, though, are expecting a lot of company beats this quarter with #CustomerConfidence rebounding. However, we’d be interested to hear about #Inflation cost and price impacts from future #Tariffs.
The pre-#Tariffs inventory should be largely worked through by now. Are companies similar to investors betting on more tacos and holding off on price increases? Or will companies bite the bullet and start to raise prices?
In any case, it’ll be almost a full quarter of the 10% baseline #Tariffs now and that doesn’t appear to be going away. We’ll get June #Inflation on Tuesday and will see if there’s any impact yet, but it’s still early…
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.