Market Musings 6/5/2025
Quick thoughts on the markets and major portfolio news. Not on Ursa yet? Download Ursa from the App Store!
The market rally finally cracked on Thursday with investors nervous about Friday’s jobs report.
Markets were still rallying through Thursday midday despite growing US-China #Tariffs trade tension and mixed #LaborMarkets data. However, investors grew anxious heading into Thursday’s close and finished lower.
So, where’s the caution coming from?
On the #Tariffs front, the US and China’s leaders finally got on the phone which should have been a positive given the stalled talks. However, it may have been mostly fluff with both sides essentially coming out saying it was a good talk and they’ll continue to talk－basically, nothing really new just another talk to have more talks.
Meanwhile, imports in April plunged -16% likely significantly impact by the massive #Tariffs imposed on China and to a lesser extent the 10% #Tariffs globally.
Finally, the weekly jobless claims. Jobless claims data tends to be a bit volatile, but last week spiked to a 7-month high and outside the 220K to 240K range we’ve been oscillating in.
So, #LaborMarkets continues to be a key focus of interest this week.
April job openings were solid on Tuesday, but lagging data given we’re already in June. Meanwhile, the May private employment data from ADP came-in very weak on Wednesday. This puts the focus on Friday’s jobs report.
Unfortunately to keep up market optimism, the report will need to thread the needle. A strong jobs report could likely keep the Fed on the sidelines for #RateCuts while a weak one could reinforce the private employment data signaling that the #LaborMarkets are crashing.
Markets are looking for a soft number, but strong enough to quickly stabilize. It’s also likely the reason why investor confidence faltered into Thursday’s market close.
So Friday’s jobs report－what’s expected?
Jobs report expectations are for 125K non-farm payrolls added in May. May’s estimate is quite a bit down from April, but still well-above last summer’s lows. Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to remain flat at 4.2%. All-in-all, hitting expectations would show a #LaborMarkets slowdown in hiring, while not cutting into existing employment.
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The statements, opinions and analyses presented here are provided as general information. This article is the opinion of the author. Anything within this article should NOT be considered an investment recommendation or advice. See Ursa’s full disclosures here.
Original Photo by Pixabay.